This article was co-written by Asif Mahmud Sohan and Nusrat Jahan Irina.
“We bury our dead. They were collected on the streets by a funeral service. The priest who died in the Purple Park is buried by a priest of the Ukrainian Orthodox church. We watch videos and cry.”.
The Kherson Diary, The Guardian
Kherson, a city to the south of Ukraine, has been captured by the troops, as of last Tuesday. Kharkiv and Mariupol continue to suffer the aggression and ruthlessness of the Russian troops. Local authorities deny, though admitting that the Russian troops have surrounded the city. People in Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, are staring down the barrel as a giant Russian military convoy is just 25 kilometers away from the city. The president of the country stated that Russia is trying to erase Ukraine altogether.
The people in Ukraine tremble in fear. Within a week or so, their worst nightmares had turned into reality. Men, women, children – everybody looking for a way out. More than 4500 soldiers have been killed by the Russian attacks, according to reports. More than 1.5 million people have fled to Poland, neighboring countries, anywhere they can go – anywhere will do at this point.
However, they are not a little bit short of courage. Bravery, that’s what you’ll see of the people here in Ukraine. They are not giving up that easily. The Ukrainians vow to fight till the very end.
It’s difficult to predict what’s going to happen even the next day. However, we can be sure of one thing. As it always happens in wars, the people who have nothing to do with the war will suffer, while those who caused the war to incur watch on, safely.
When Did the Invasion Start?
On the 24th of February, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that a ‘special military operation’ is to be carried out on their neighboring country Ukraine. Russia has long been campaigning for a return of Ukraine under the wings of Russia to be a part of the larger state. Russia has refused to take part in dialogue to come to a resolution so far and had gone as far as to tear up the Minsk treaty, which was to reserve certain rights for Ukraine’s sovereignty.
However, the scene has been aggravated to a fierce degree, and a full-scale violent invasion is being carried out as we speak, the major targets being large cities in Ukraine: Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, Mariupol and Kramatorsk.
A Brief Historical Summary
Catherine the Great, the last reigning Empress Regnant of Russia, took possession of a great portion of Ukraine’s territory around the late 1700s. Ukraine did fight for freedom vehemently. However, by 1919, Ukraine had lost and became a part of the Soviet Union.
Even though Ukraine was supposed to be a part of the Soviet Union, the reality was different. Ukraine used to be a separate entity, having its own language and status. Perhaps it was due to their existence as a separate entity that in the 1930s, Stalin decided to confiscate the land and wheat of the people of Ukraine. The result was a famine that caused the death of approximately 4 million people.
So, it was not a surprise that Ukraine decided to declare its independence in 1991, the year the Soviet Union collapsed. Ukraine had possession of a considerable portion of the nuclear weaponry at the time of the dissolution. The country agreed to send the nuclear arsenal to Russia.
Russia and Ukraine have been in disputes multiple times over the gas that Russia exports to the rest of Europe. Gazprom, the Russian gas monopoly, was the supplier of gas to numerous European countries. However, the pipeline used for export went through Ukraine. That’s where the problem began.
The Russians accused Ukraine of stealing gas from the pipeline, and Ukraine admitted to the accusation. However, proper settlements were not reached for a long time, leading to multiple disputes over the years. On June 2010, a Stockholm court of arbitration judged that Ukraine owed Russia 12.1 billion cubic meters of gas.
In 2014, pro-Russia Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych rejected an agreement of association with the EU to strengthen the country’s ties with Russia. However, the decision was met with national outrage, which resulted in the removal of Viktor Yanukovych from the position of presidency. Russia did not take the removal of the president that leaned towards it. So, Russia decided to annex the Crimean Peninsula of Ukraine, claiming the separatist rebels from the east of Ukraine were responsible for the situation. More than 14000 people were killed in the destructive fight at Donbass.
Recently, Ukraine started forming better relations with Western Europe, although strong cultural ties still exist with Russia, particularly in the eastern parts of Ukraine – the same area Russia has invaded first.
The Current Situation
As the grim reality of a major war begins unfolding, thousands of Ukrainian people are fleeing or taking up cover from Russian bombings in the makeshift bomb shelters in underground tunnels and subway stations. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has remained at the forefront of the retaliation, has declared martial law all over the country and ordered the conscription of all able males ages 18-60 to help defend their nation. As of now, Russians seem to be abated by the immense resistance, but the Ukrainians have much to fear as they brace themselves for an air attack.
Khersen has already been captured by the Russian troops. Kyiv and Kherkiv are putting up a brave fight in front of the Russian assault. The Russians’ approach has been abated to an extent. However, evacuation plans from Mariupol cannot be executed. The Russians shelled the southeastern port city as evacuation convoys were gathering. There is no way out for the people within, and yet they are, apparently, not afraid.
Meanwhile, Putin continues his refusal to overturn this most unjustified assault on millions of innocent people as he keeps rejecting the diplomatic path to this crisis. For this glaring disregard of life and the sheer act of tyranny, countries all over the world have expressed strong condemnation. At first, due to the rejection of a peace talk proposal, the US has decided to enforce a series of elaborate sanctions on Russia, freezing assets and imposing a travel ban. Other G7 countries and NATO have vowed to support Ukraine by following suit and have offered to send weapons and ammunition. However, all countries have withheld deploying troops to fight alongside the Ukrainians.
Peace Talks: A Mere Farce?
Peace talks have started from Monday. However, a solution seems bleak since the conditions put forth by the Russians seem to be extremely harsh. The Russians want Ukraine to stop its Military activities, be in a position of neutrality where it can join neither EU not NATO, and recognize the independence of not only Crimea, but also Donetsk and Lugansk. It’s safe to say that these demands will not be met happily by the Ukrainians.
The Russian military also assured that it would cease fire and open up corridors for people to flee. However, the troops continued to assault the cities of Ukraine, which Ukraine sees as a clear breach of violation.
The Impact of Invasion on Russia: Sanctions and their Consequences
The economic sanctions against Russia caused by its invasion of Ukraine have had serious implications already.
Some of the largest Russian banks have been cut off from the SWIFT payments system. Ruble, the Russian currency, decreased in value around a staggering 30%, causing the Russian central bank to increase interest rates from 9.5 to a massive 20%.
Russia also has shut down its stock market in the longest pause in the country’s history. Russia’s largest lender, Sberbank, experienced a massive slump of 93% in London on Wednesday. Gazprom PJSC, the state-run gas giant, slumped 97%. Due to the unprecedented scenario that the Russian stock market has undergone, experts state that investments from foreigners will become rarer and rarer due to the level of uncertainty in the market.
From the looks of things, unless some drastic changes take place, Russia is very likely to go through a serious economic crisis, with the ordinary Russians set to undergo severe implications.
What Does the Future Hold?
As the war continues to escalate to an alarming degree, the hope for a peaceful solution seems bleak.
The consequences of such treachery will be brutal: both in terms of lives lost and economic instability. Ukraine and Russia are key exporters of wheat and barley in several countries in the Middle East and Africa, which will worsen existing food shortages in some of these countries. Additionally, Ukraine is also an exporter of steel, coal, fuel and petroleum.
An adverse effect on such factors will potentially disrupt its economic stratosphere, and early signs of such a circumstance can be seen in the stocks, which have plummeted since the invasion began.
The world is yet to see how the rest of the conflict will ensue and who will step forward to lend a hand to Ukraine beyond only words of condemnation as the invaders attempt to ravage the nation.
