Since President Bashar al-Assad’s regime toppled on December 7, Syria seems to have gone out of the frying pan and into the fire.
Following the successful operation of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), the main paramilitary organization of the Syrian civil war, Syria now faces significant threat of invasion by its neighbour, Israel. From December 7 to 12, Israel has launched over 400 attacks on Syria, strategically and relentlessly. In a press conference on the 9th of December, Prime Minister Netanyahu not only rejoiced in the collapse of the Syrian regime, but also took credit for his role in it.. But what does he mean by planning to “Change the face of the Middle East”? And what does the future hold for Syria and its people, bereft of military protection and public administration?
A history of hostility
Since the “inception” of Israel in 1948, Syria and Israel have shared a violent relationship. During the Six-Day war in 1967, Israel seized control over a substantial portion of Golan Heights, in the southwestern border of Syria. In 1974, the UN declared this a demilitarised zone. However in 1981, after unilaterally annexing that part of Golan Heights, Israeli settlers and troops began occupying the area. This action was not internationally recognized. Nonetheless, whatever remained of Golan Heights was treated as a buffer zone under Syrian rule.
Over the years, Israel has staged uncountable incursions across Syria, where it aimed to “eliminate Iranian targets”. Since Syria provides a valuable corridor to other Middle Eastern countries like Lebanon and Iraq, Iran heavily depends on Syria for strategic purposes. As such, the Iranian military was also notably present in Syria. In recent times, however, Iran has declined having any troops in Syria. So how is Israel justifying its attacks now?
Unclear intentions
After Al-Assad fled Syria, the military also dispersed, leaving the country unprotected. In an almost unwarranted move, Israel began operations into Syria. Syrian military bases and artillery were the main targets. In what was justified by “precaution”, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) began attacking military resources on the outskirts of the country, as well as in the capital city of Damascus – and that was just via air attacks. Syrian naval fleets have also suffered fatal damage at the hands of the Israeli navy. Even Golan Heights, a demilitarised zone, was not spared. Israeli ground forces advanced on the buffer area, warning villagers to stay inside their homes.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar claim that these initiatives were necessary to ensure that Syrian military infrastructure does not fall into the hands of extremists and rebels. Israeli officials also agree that the ceasefire agreement regarding Golan Heights is now invalid, since the Assad regime has collapsed. As such, they do not deny their speedy advances on the demilitarised area.
Several other Middle Eastern countries have condemned this move, while the US only urged that Israel keep this invasion temporary. Even UN spokespeople have vocalised their concerns – Golan Heights is a vantage point for any nation wishing to infiltrate Syria. The Israeli government, however, continues to argue that its actions are only defensive and short-term. Coming from people who continue justifying genocide in Palestine stating these exact reasons, there is no credibility in their statement.
In search of nation-building
Across Europe, and especially in France, where over 30,000 Syrians had fled from the civil war, people are celebrating the deposition of Assad. While unsure of who Assad’s replacement will be, most of them believe that “Anyone is better than Assad”. Many refugees now want to return home, but many are still skeptical of what awaits them. With constant military threats, a barely functioning economy, and skyrocketed crime rates, Syrians are too “exhausted” to face further conflict.
The de facto chief of the Syrian transitional government and long-term leader of HTS, Ahmed al-Sharaa (also known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani) now aims to build a diverse, secular state. This naturally comes as a contradiction as he is widely known for his jihadi ideologies, and is internationally recognized as a terrorist by major countries like the US and the UK, with a bounty to his name.
However, as a past resident of Golan Heights, Syrians believe he may do some good to end the Israeli occupation of the area, and free the country of further threats. Additionally, since he has previously ruled a semi-technocratic government in the city of Idlib as a part of HTS’ operations, it is expected that he has adequate knowledge in politics. But even then, the rebel faction did not have to deal with the variegated populations which coexist throughout Syria as a whole which might prove to be a significant challenge this time.
As of December 15, the number of Israeli airstrikes across Syria have crossed 800. Military infrastructure continues getting destroyed, strategic weapon stores demolished. As if that wasn’t enough, significant disputes in northeastern Syria persist between Kurdish armed rebels, Turkey-backed militant groups and the HTS. The new chief may have more on his plate than it seems, and the world cynically waits to see the outcome of this historical movement.
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