The 2024 U.S. presidential election marked an unexpected turn in global politics. Former President Donald Trump’s return to the White House is an extraordinary development, stirring discussions worldwide about what his renewed leadership might mean for various regions. For Bangladesh, Trump’s re-election brings both potential opportunities and concerns, with implications spanning trade, climate policy, diplomacy, and regional security.
Trade: A Mixed Outlook for Exports and Tariffs
The United States is Bangladesh’s largest export market, with the textile and garment sector generating over $10 billion annually. Bangladesh’s exporters, especially in apparel, have much to gain or lose depending on Trump’s trade policies. During his previous term, Trump’s protectionist “America First” stance led to higher tariffs on imports from certain countries, including China, shifting some U.S. import orders to other countries, including Bangladesh.
With Trump back in power, further increases in tariffs on Chinese products could again redirect U.S. orders to Bangladesh. However, any economic downturn in the U.S. could reduce demand for Bangladeshi exports if consumer spending dips due to higher domestic costs and inflation.
Beyond apparel, Trump’s focus on transactional diplomacy could mean renegotiating trade terms with Bangladesh. If Trump pursues stricter trade policies, the U.S. may demand more concessions, such as opening markets for American products in exchange for stable access to the U.S. market. Although this could bolster sectors like apparel in the short term, Bangladesh may need to navigate a new era of trade diplomacy under an administration inclined toward reciprocity.
Impact on Climate Policy and Adaptation Efforts
Bangladesh is among the most vulnerable countries to climate change, and Trump’s previous climate policies were widely criticized for downplaying global climate challenges. During his first term, Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement, reversing commitments to reduce carbon emissions and funding for climate adaptation.
A renewed Trump administration could reduce U.S. contributions to global climate funds, crucial for climate-vulnerable countries like Bangladesh to build resilience. Bangladesh may face setbacks in accessing international climate finance if the U.S. further distances itself from climate initiatives.
This challenge makes it more critical for Bangladesh to pursue partnerships with other climate-conscious nations and organizations and to strengthen its domestic climate adaptation policies.
Diplomatic Tensions and Regional Dynamics
Trump’s re-election is likely to affect U.S.-Bangladesh relations through its influence on South Asia’s regional politics. During his campaign, Trump criticized Bangladesh over “barbaric violence” against minorities, reflecting an apparent bias that could shape his administration’s policy. Bangladesh might see the U.S. taking a tougher stance on domestic issues concerning minority rights, especially if influenced by India’s stance or pressure. Moreover, Trump’s close relationship with India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi suggests potential challenges for Bangladesh if the U.S. chooses to prioritize India’s perspective on regional matters. This could amplify tensions between Bangladesh and India, particularly if Bangladesh perceives that it is being treated as a secondary partner in U.S. foreign policy.
For Bangladesh, balancing relations with both the U.S. and China will require strategic diplomacy as Washington continues its Indo-Pacific Strategy aimed at countering China’s influence.
Immigration and Remittances: Possible Strain for the Bangladeshi Diaspora
Bangladeshis living in the U.S. contribute significantly to Bangladesh’s economy through remittances, and Trump’s re-election may impact immigration policies, which could ripple through remittance flows. Trump’s previous administration introduced restrictive immigration policies, and a return to these could make it harder for Bangladeshi families to reunite, reducing remittance inflows over time. Furthermore, Trump once proposed taxing remittances to deter illegal immigration. Should his administration revive such proposals, Bangladesh could see decreased remittance flows, a critical source of foreign currency.
With a large Bangladeshi diaspora in the U.S., any restrictive immigration reforms could directly affect thousands of families and the Bangladeshi economy.
Regional Security: Navigating the U.S.-China Rivalry
Bangladesh’s strategic position in South Asia makes it significant in the U.S.-China rivalry. The Trump administration previously intensified efforts to counter China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region, and his second term may see a continuation or even escalation of this approach. As a result, Bangladesh could feel pressure to align more closely with one of the two major powers. Bangladesh has maintained a balanced foreign policy between the U.S. and China, leveraging relations with both for economic and development gains.
However, the Trump administration’s hardline stance could challenge Bangladesh’s non-aligned policy, potentially pressuring it to adopt policies less favorable to China. This may be a difficult choice, as Bangladesh relies heavily on Chinese investment for infrastructure and economic projects, while also valuing the U.S. as a trade partner.
Human Rights and Democratic Values: A Divergent Focus?
Under the Biden administration, there was a focus on democratic governance and human rights, with sanctions on certain Bangladeshi officials in response to reported rights violations. However, Trump’s foreign policy traditionally placed less emphasis on democracy and human rights abroad, favoring stability over reform. Bangladesh’s interim government, led by Chief Adviser Prof Muhammad Yunus, may find more flexibility in foreign policy under Trump’s administration compared to the more stringent democratic expectations seen under Biden. However, Trump’s authoritarian tendencies could indirectly embolden undemocratic practices in regions where governance structures are already fragile.
If the U.S. under Trump’s leadership reduces its focus on human rights, Bangladesh may feel less pressured on issues of governance and democratic accountability. While this could ease diplomatic relations, it might also raise concerns about domestic reforms being stalled without international oversight.
Despite the uncertainties, Bangladesh has avenues to benefit from Trump administration policies. Increased tariffs on Chinese imports may position Bangladesh as an alternative sourcing destination for U.S. companies, particularly in the garment sector. If Bangladesh can strengthen its infrastructure and attract foreign direct investment (FDI), it could capitalize on shifting global supply chains. Bangladesh should also look to diversify its export portfolio to reduce dependency on the U.S. market and explore new trade partnerships with other countries, especially within Asia and the EU. Proactive measures in establishing trade alliances and strengthening economic ties with nations other than the U.S. will help Bangladesh mitigate any negative impacts from a less predictable Trump administration.
The road ahead requires prudent diplomacy and foresight from Bangladesh’s leaders as they navigate the complexities of global power dynamics. A balanced and proactive approach will ensure that Bangladesh remains resilient in protecting its interests, preserving its economic growth, and fostering stable international relations, regardless of who leads the world’s most powerful nation.